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Matt Potter v Robin Aris (Tue 13 Nov 2012)

Match won by Matt Potter. Result: 18-16,15-8,14-16,15-5.

Starting level for Matt Potter: 2,214, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Robin Aris: 2,365, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Robin Aris to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Matt Potter.

Matt Potter won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Potter played 29% better than Robin Aris in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Potter actually played at a level of 2,601 and Robin Aris at a level of 2,013. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Potter changes to +17% and Robin Aris changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Potter becomes +7.1% and for Robin Aris becomes -6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Matt Potter is +5.4% and for Robin Aris is -4.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Potter: 83%, Robin Aris: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Potter: 70%, Robin Aris: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Potter: 2,329, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Robin Aris: 2,262, level confidence: 77%.