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Neil Hitchins v Youssef Abdallah (Thu 15 Nov 2012)

Match won by Youssef Abdallah. Result: 4-11,16-18,7-11.

Starting level for Neil Hitchins: 8,062, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Youssef Abdallah: 8,251, level confidence: 52%.
Youssef Abdallah to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Neil Hitchins.

Youssef Abdallah won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Abdallah played 50% better than Neil Hitchins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Abdallah actually played at a level of 10,003 and Neil Hitchins at a level of 6,650. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Abdallah changes to +21% and Neil Hitchins changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Abdallah becomes +5.9% and for Neil Hitchins becomes -4.7%.

Given Youssef Abdallah's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Neil Hitchins's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Youssef Abdallah is +4% and for Neil Hitchins is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Abdallah: 72%, Neil Hitchins: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Abdallah: 59%, Neil Hitchins: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Hitchins: 7,889, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Youssef Abdallah: 8,565, level confidence: 59%.