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Peter Iszatt v Duncan Green (Thu 15 Nov 2012)

Match won by Peter Iszatt. Result: 15-4,15-9,15-13.

Starting level for Peter Iszatt: 1,401, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Duncan Green: 1,427, level confidence: 61%.
Duncan Green to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Peter Iszatt.

Peter Iszatt won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Iszatt played 73% better than Duncan Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Iszatt actually played at a level of 1,860 and Duncan Green at a level of 1,075. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Iszatt changes to +30% and Duncan Green changes to -32%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Iszatt becomes +13.6% and for Duncan Green becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Peter Iszatt is +10.2% and for Duncan Green is -10.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Duncan Green is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Iszatt: 82%, Duncan Green: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Iszatt: 61%, Duncan Green: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Iszatt: 1,539, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Duncan Green: 1,346, level confidence: 59%.