Ian Lennox v Paul Gandolfo (Tue 20 Nov 2012)
Match won by Paul Gandolfo. Result: 5-15,12-15,10-15.
Starting level for
Ian Lennox:
874, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Paul Gandolfo:
1,306, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Paul Gandolfo to win as he is currently playing
49% better than Ian Lennox.
Paul Gandolfo won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gandolfo played
67% better than Ian Lennox in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Gandolfo actually played at a level of
1,379 and Ian Lennox at a level of
828. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 4.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo changes to +4.4% and Ian Lennox changes to -4.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo becomes +3.3% and for Ian Lennox becomes -3.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo is +2.5% and for Ian Lennox is -2.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gandolfo: 89%, Ian Lennox: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gandolfo: 85%, Ian Lennox: 83%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ian Lennox:
855, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Paul Gandolfo:
1,336, level confidence: 85%.