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Gus Lyseight v Jordan Ryan (Tue 20 Nov 2012)

Match won by Jordan Ryan. Result: 7-15,5-15,10-15.

Starting level for Gus Lyseight: 1,565, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jordan Ryan: 1,796, level confidence: 66%.
Jordan Ryan to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Gus Lyseight.

Jordan Ryan won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jordan Ryan played 105% better than Gus Lyseight in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jordan Ryan actually played at a level of 2,398 and Gus Lyseight at a level of 1,172. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jordan Ryan changes to +31% and Gus Lyseight changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jordan Ryan becomes +12.7% and for Gus Lyseight becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Jordan Ryan is +9.5% and for Gus Lyseight is -8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gus Lyseight is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jordan Ryan: 81%, Gus Lyseight: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jordan Ryan: 61%, Gus Lyseight: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gus Lyseight: 1,503, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Jordan Ryan: 1,964, level confidence: 61%.