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Dan Ludlam v Brad Whitbread (Tue 20 Nov 2012)

Match won by Brad Whitbread. Result: 14-16,15-4,7-15,15-7,16-18.

Starting level for Dan Ludlam: 2,010, level confidence: 24%.
Starting level for Brad Whitbread: 2,663, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Brad Whitbread to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Dan Ludlam.

Brad Whitbread won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Brad Whitbread played 5% better than Dan Ludlam in this match.

As Brad Whitbread has played below his allowed range at 2,302, his level reduction is 9.2% before damping. On the assumption that Brad Whitbread would normally have been playing at level 2,595 (based on typical behaviour), Dan Ludlam played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.9% and 9.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Brad Whitbread changes to -2.4% and Dan Ludlam changes to +9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Brad Whitbread becomes -1.7% and for Dan Ludlam becomes +4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Brad Whitbread is -1.3% and for Dan Ludlam is +3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Brad Whitbread: 86%, Dan Ludlam: 49%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Brad Whitbread: 76%, Dan Ludlam: 43%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Ludlam: 2,078, level confidence: 43%.
Final level for Brad Whitbread: 2,626, level confidence: 76%.