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Gavin Bone v Andrew James (Wed 28 Nov 2012)

Match won by Andrew James. Result: 15-12,16-14,10-15,13-15,7-15.

Starting level for Gavin Bone: 1,028, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andrew James: 1,603, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Andrew James to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Gavin Bone.

Andrew James won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew James played 12% better than Gavin Bone in this match.

As Andrew James has played below his allowed range at 1,270, his level reduction is 10.7% before damping. On the assumption that Andrew James would normally have been playing at level 1,513 (based on typical behaviour), Gavin Bone played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.5% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew James changes to -8.5% and Gavin Bone changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew James becomes -4.8% and for Gavin Bone becomes +6.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Andrew James is -3.5% and for Gavin Bone is +5.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew James: 84%, Gavin Bone: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew James: 71%, Gavin Bone: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gavin Bone: 1,080, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Andrew James: 1,546, level confidence: 71%.