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Rob Twilley v John Chesters (Wed 28 Nov 2012)

Match won by Rob Twilley. Result: 14-16,15-11,15-9,15-9.

Starting level for Rob Twilley: 1,454, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for John Chesters: 1,012, level confidence: 67%.
Rob Twilley to win as he is currently playing 44% better than John Chesters.

Rob Twilley won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Twilley played 27% better than John Chesters in this match.

As Rob Twilley has played below his allowed range at 1,306, his level reduction is 1.6% before damping. On the assumption that Rob Twilley would normally have been playing at level 1,396 (based on typical behaviour), John Chesters played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Twilley changes to -1.3% and John Chesters changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Twilley becomes -1.1% and for John Chesters becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Rob Twilley is -0.9% and for John Chesters is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Twilley: 79%, John Chesters: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Twilley: 75%, John Chesters: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Twilley: 1,439, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for John Chesters: 1,034, level confidence: 77%.