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Scot Adam v Paul Starkey (Thu 29 Nov 2012)

Match won by Paul Starkey. Result: 15-12,12-15,14-16,14-16.

Starting level for Scot Adam: 1,547, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Paul Starkey: 1,198, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Scot Adam to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Paul Starkey.

Paul Starkey won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Starkey played 19% better than Scot Adam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Starkey actually played at a level of 1,486 and Scot Adam at a level of 1,247. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Starkey changes to +17% and Scot Adam changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Starkey becomes +9.1% and for Scot Adam becomes -9.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Paul Starkey is +6.8% and for Scot Adam is -7.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Scot Adam is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Starkey: 89%, Scot Adam: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Starkey: 72%, Scot Adam: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scot Adam: 1,471, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Paul Starkey: 1,278, level confidence: 72%.