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Stephen Lloyd v Paul Scott-Stevens (Tue 04 Dec 2012)

Match won by Paul Scott-Stevens. Result: 17-15,15-8,13-15,0-15,0-15.

Starting level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,786, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 2,045, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Stephen Lloyd to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Paul Scott-Stevens.

Paul Scott-Stevens won 60% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 51% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Scott-Stevens played 20% better than Stephen Lloyd in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Scott-Stevens actually played at a level of 2,618 and Stephen Lloyd at a level of 2,176. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens changes to +24% and Stephen Lloyd changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens becomes +9.6% and for Stephen Lloyd becomes -7.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens is +7.2% and for Stephen Lloyd is -5.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Stephen Lloyd is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Scott-Stevens: 86%, Stephen Lloyd: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Scott-Stevens: 67%, Stephen Lloyd: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,649, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 2,190, level confidence: 67%.