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Gus Lyseight v Dennis Arthur (Tue 04 Dec 2012)

Match won by Dennis Arthur. Result: 14-16,15-12,15-7,5-15,11-15.

Starting level for Gus Lyseight: 1,429, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Dennis Arthur: 2,030, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Dennis Arthur to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Gus Lyseight.

Dennis Arthur won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dennis Arthur played 10% better than Gus Lyseight in this match.

As Dennis Arthur has played below his allowed range at 1,708, his level reduction is 9% before damping. On the assumption that Dennis Arthur would normally have been playing at level 1,954 (based on typical behaviour), Gus Lyseight played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.5% and 9.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dennis Arthur changes to -7.2% and Gus Lyseight changes to +9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dennis Arthur becomes -3.9% and for Gus Lyseight becomes +5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Dennis Arthur is -2.9% and for Gus Lyseight is +4.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dennis Arthur: 84%, Gus Lyseight: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dennis Arthur: 73%, Gus Lyseight: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gus Lyseight: 1,485, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Dennis Arthur: 1,970, level confidence: 73%.