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Paul Gandolfo v Michael Broadbent (Tue 04 Dec 2012)

Match won by Michael Broadbent. Result: 13-15,10-15,15-6,10-15.

Starting level for Paul Gandolfo: 1,334, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Michael Broadbent: 1,368, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Michael Broadbent to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Paul Gandolfo.

Michael Broadbent won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Broadbent played 19% better than Paul Gandolfo in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Broadbent actually played at a level of 1,472 and Paul Gandolfo at a level of 1,239. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Broadbent changes to +6.3% and Paul Gandolfo changes to -7.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Broadbent becomes +4.1% and for Paul Gandolfo becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Michael Broadbent is +3.1% and for Paul Gandolfo is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Broadbent: 91%, Paul Gandolfo: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Broadbent: 85%, Paul Gandolfo: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gandolfo: 1,287, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Michael Broadbent: 1,408, level confidence: 85%.