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Youssef Abdallah v Ondrej Uherka (Thu 06 Dec 2012)

Match won by Youssef Abdallah. Result: 5-11,11-5,11-1,7-11,11-7.

Starting level for Youssef Abdallah: 9,602, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 7,520, level confidence: 56%.
Youssef Abdallah to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Ondrej Uherka.

Youssef Abdallah won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Abdallah played 15% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.

As Youssef Abdallah has played below his allowed range at 8,899, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Youssef Abdallah would normally have been playing at level 9,415 (based on typical behaviour), Ondrej Uherka played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Abdallah changes to -2.8% and Ondrej Uherka changes to +4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Abdallah becomes -1.4% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes +1.8%.

Given Youssef Abdallah's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Given Ondrej Uherka's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Youssef Abdallah is -0.9% and for Ondrej Uherka is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Abdallah: 76%, Ondrej Uherka: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Abdallah: 72%, Ondrej Uherka: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Youssef Abdallah: 9,502, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 7,603, level confidence: 71%.