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Neil Waller v Jack Fowler (Thu 06 Dec 2012)

Match won by Jack Fowler. Result: 3-11,5-11,4-11.

Starting level for Neil Waller: 3,117, level confidence: 41%.
Starting level for Jack Fowler: 3,850, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Jack Fowler to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Neil Waller.

Jack Fowler won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Fowler played 175% better than Neil Waller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Fowler actually played at a level of 5,745 and Neil Waller at a level of 2,089. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 43% and 43% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Fowler changes to +23% and Neil Waller changes to -43%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Fowler becomes +7.7% and for Neil Waller becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Jack Fowler is +5.8% and for Neil Waller is -10.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Fowler: 88%, Neil Waller: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Fowler: 59%, Neil Waller: 43%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Waller: 2,829, level confidence: 43%.
Final level for Jack Fowler: 4,067, level confidence: 59%.