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Paul Gandolfo v Dave Relf (Tue 11 Dec 2012)

Match won by Paul Gandolfo. Result: 15-11,15-12,15-11.

Starting level for Paul Gandolfo: 1,287, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Relf: 785, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Paul Gandolfo to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Dave Relf.

Paul Gandolfo won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gandolfo played 40% better than Dave Relf in this match.

As Paul Gandolfo has played below his allowed range at 1,098, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Gandolfo would normally have been playing at level 1,200 (based on typical behaviour), Dave Relf played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo changes to 0% and Dave Relf changes to +3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo becomes -0% and for Dave Relf becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo is 0% and for Dave Relf is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gandolfo: 87%, Dave Relf: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gandolfo: 80%, Dave Relf: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gandolfo: 1,285, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Dave Relf: 803, level confidence: 79%.