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Gavin Noffki v Laurence Green (Thu 13 Dec 2012)

Match won by Laurence Green. Result: 12-10,8-11,7-11,8-11.

Starting level for Gavin Noffki: 1,573, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Laurence Green: 2,167, level confidence: 60%.
Laurence Green to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Gavin Noffki.

Laurence Green won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Laurence Green played 24% better than Gavin Noffki in this match.

As Laurence Green has played below his allowed range at 1,984, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Laurence Green would normally have been playing at level 2,097 (based on typical behaviour), Gavin Noffki played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Laurence Green changes to -1.2% and Gavin Noffki changes to +3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Laurence Green becomes -0.9% and for Gavin Noffki becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Laurence Green is -0.7% and for Gavin Noffki is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Laurence Green: 78%, Gavin Noffki: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Laurence Green: 74%, Gavin Noffki: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gavin Noffki: 1,600, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Laurence Green: 2,149, level confidence: 74%.