Carol Booth v Sophie Reynolds (Mon 07 Jan 2013)
Match won by Carol Booth. Result: 15-4,13-15,15-7,15-6.
Starting level for
Carol Booth:
240, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Sophie Reynolds:
126, level confidence: 55%.
Carol Booth to win as she is currently playing
90% better than Sophie Reynolds.
Carol Booth won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 81% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Carol Booth played
44% better than Sophie Reynolds in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Carol Booth was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 186 and 240 without affecting her level.
As Carol Booth has played below her allowed range at 183, her level reduction is 1.3% before damping. On the assumption that Carol Booth would normally have been playing at level 214 (based on typical behaviour), Sophie Reynolds played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 6.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Carol Booth changes to -0.8% and Sophie Reynolds changes to +6.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Carol Booth becomes -0.8% and for Sophie Reynolds becomes +4.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Carol Booth is -0.6% and for Sophie Reynolds is +3.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Carol Booth: 78%, Sophie Reynolds: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Carol Booth: 68%, Sophie Reynolds: 64%.
Final level for Carol Booth:
238, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Sophie Reynolds:
130, level confidence: 64%.