James Clyne v Adie Viljoen (Tue 08 Jan 2013)
Match won by James Clyne. Result: 15-8,15-10,10-15,15-9.
Starting level for
James Clyne:
2,836, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Adie Viljoen:
2,279, level confidence: 69%.
James Clyne to win as he is currently playing
24% better than Adie Viljoen.
James Clyne won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Clyne played
27% better than Adie Viljoen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Clyne actually played at a level of
2,865 and Adie Viljoen at a level of
2,256. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 0.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Clyne changes to +0.9% and Adie Viljoen changes to -0.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Clyne becomes +0.6% and for Adie Viljoen becomes -0.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for James Clyne is +0.5% and for Adie Viljoen is -0.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Clyne: 80%, Adie Viljoen: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Clyne: 79%, Adie Viljoen: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for James Clyne:
2,845, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Adie Viljoen:
2,265, level confidence: 82%.