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Charles Yerrell v Ondrej Uherka (Thu 10 Jan 2013)

Match won by Ondrej Uherka. Result: 8-11,5-11,11-7,10-12.

Starting level for Charles Yerrell: 3,250, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 7,605, level confidence: 61%.
Ondrej Uherka to win as he is currently playing 134% better than Charles Yerrell.

Ondrej Uherka won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ondrej Uherka played 24% better than Charles Yerrell in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ondrej Uherka was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,042 and 7,605 without affecting his level.

As Ondrej Uherka has played below his allowed range at 4,499, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Ondrej Uherka would normally have been playing at level 6,335 (based on typical behaviour), Charles Yerrell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.7% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ondrej Uherka changes to -7.7% and Charles Yerrell changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ondrej Uherka becomes -2.8% and for Charles Yerrell becomes +5.8%.

Given Ondrej Uherka's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.9% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Ondrej Uherka is -1.9% and for Charles Yerrell is +4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ondrej Uherka: 78%, Charles Yerrell: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ondrej Uherka: 57%, Charles Yerrell: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charles Yerrell: 3,386, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 7,451, level confidence: 57%.