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Dan Collison v Stephen Wells (Thu 10 Jan 2013)

Match won by Dan Collison. Result: 21-19,18-16,15-8.

Starting level for Dan Collison: 1,431, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stephen Wells: 1,280, level confidence: 61%.
Dan Collison to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Stephen Wells.

Dan Collison won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Collison played 35% better than Stephen Wells in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan Collison actually played at a level of 1,574 and Stephen Wells at a level of 1,164. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Collison changes to +7.4% and Stephen Wells changes to -9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Collison becomes +4.5% and for Stephen Wells becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Dan Collison is +3.3% and for Stephen Wells is -4.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Collison: 88%, Stephen Wells: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Collison: 80%, Stephen Wells: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Collison: 1,477, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Stephen Wells: 1,227, level confidence: 71%.