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Stephen Lloyd v Paul Green (Tue 15 Jan 2013)

Match won by Paul Green. Result: 15-10,13-15,15-10,13-15,14-16.

Starting level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,681, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Paul Green: 1,980, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Stephen Lloyd to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Paul Green.

Paul Green won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Green played 6% better than Stephen Lloyd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Green actually played at a level of 2,373 and Stephen Lloyd at a level of 2,237. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Green changes to +16% and Stephen Lloyd changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Green becomes +7% and for Stephen Lloyd becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Paul Green is +5.2% and for Stephen Lloyd is -5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Green: 87%, Stephen Lloyd: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Green: 73%, Stephen Lloyd: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,550, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Paul Green: 2,080, level confidence: 73%.