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Keith Warman v Matt Inglis (Tue 15 Jan 2013)

Match won by Keith Warman. Result: 15-11,15-17,15-12,15-7.

Starting level for Keith Warman: 1,347, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matt Inglis: 1,712, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Matt Inglis to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Keith Warman.

Keith Warman won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Warman played 26% better than Matt Inglis in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Warman actually played at a level of 1,704 and Matt Inglis at a level of 1,354. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Warman changes to +22% and Matt Inglis changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Warman becomes +10.5% and for Matt Inglis becomes -10.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Keith Warman is +7.9% and for Matt Inglis is -7.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Matt Inglis is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Warman: 91%, Matt Inglis: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Warman: 72%, Matt Inglis: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Warman: 1,451, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Matt Inglis: 1,628, level confidence: 69%.