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Mike Richards v Howard Hawkins (Tue 15 Jan 2013)

Match won by Mike Richards. Result: 15-7,17-15,4-15,15-12.

Starting level for Mike Richards: 2,206, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Howard Hawkins: 1,714, level confidence: 66%.
Mike Richards to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Howard Hawkins.

Mike Richards won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Richards played 18% better than Howard Hawkins in this match.

As Mike Richards has played below his allowed range at 2,064, his level reduction is 2% before damping. On the assumption that Mike Richards would normally have been playing at level 2,160 (based on typical behaviour), Howard Hawkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 2.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Richards changes to -1.7% and Howard Hawkins changes to +2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Richards becomes -1.3% and for Howard Hawkins becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Mike Richards is -1% and for Howard Hawkins is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Richards: 81%, Howard Hawkins: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Richards: 78%, Howard Hawkins: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Richards: 2,182, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Howard Hawkins: 1,742, level confidence: 78%.