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Gordon Kerr v Duleep Adhihetti (Wed 16 Jan 2013)

Match won by Duleep Adhihetti. Result: 7-15,9-15,10-15.

Starting level for Gordon Kerr: 1,860, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Duleep Adhihetti: 2,814, level confidence: 64%.
Duleep Adhihetti to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Gordon Kerr.

Duleep Adhihetti won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Duleep Adhihetti played 73% better than Gordon Kerr in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Duleep Adhihetti actually played at a level of 3,010 and Gordon Kerr at a level of 1,739. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 5.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Duleep Adhihetti changes to +5.3% and Gordon Kerr changes to -5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Duleep Adhihetti becomes +2.8% and for Gordon Kerr becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Duleep Adhihetti is +2.1% and for Gordon Kerr is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Duleep Adhihetti: 80%, Gordon Kerr: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Duleep Adhihetti: 75%, Gordon Kerr: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gordon Kerr: 1,811, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Duleep Adhihetti: 2,870, level confidence: 75%.