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Andrew James v John Kerley (Wed 16 Jan 2013)

Match won by John Kerley. Result: 15-11,11-15,6-15,15-10,13-15.

Starting level for Andrew James: 1,608, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for John Kerley: 1,512, level confidence: 66%.
Andrew James to win as he is currently playing 6% better than John Kerley.

John Kerley won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Kerley played 10% better than Andrew James in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Kerley actually played at a level of 1,635 and Andrew James at a level of 1,487. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Kerley changes to +7.9% and Andrew James changes to -7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Kerley becomes +4.6% and for Andrew James becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for John Kerley is +3.4% and for Andrew James is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Kerley: 81%, Andrew James: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Kerley: 75%, Andrew James: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew James: 1,557, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for John Kerley: 1,562, level confidence: 75%.