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Tom Moody v Wayne Davidson (Wed 16 Jan 2013)

Match won by Wayne Davidson. Result: 9-15,10-15,6-15.

Starting level for Tom Moody: 1,303, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Wayne Davidson: 1,924, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Wayne Davidson to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Tom Moody.

Wayne Davidson won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wayne Davidson played 80% better than Tom Moody in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Wayne Davidson actually played at a level of 2,124 and Tom Moody at a level of 1,180. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.5% and 8.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wayne Davidson changes to +1.2% and Tom Moody changes to -8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wayne Davidson becomes +0.9% and for Tom Moody becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Wayne Davidson is +0.7% and for Tom Moody is -3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wayne Davidson: 84%, Tom Moody: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wayne Davidson: 76%, Tom Moody: 29%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Moody: 1,253, level confidence: 29%.
Final level for Wayne Davidson: 1,935, level confidence: 76%.