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Tom Power v Philip Waller (Thu 17 Jan 2013)

Match won by Philip Waller. Result: 4-11,11-9,7-11,11-13.

Starting level for Tom Power: 7,720, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Philip Waller: 5,183, level confidence: 61%.
Tom Power to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Philip Waller.

Philip Waller won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Philip Waller played 28% better than Tom Power in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Philip Waller actually played at a level of 7,150 and Tom Power at a level of 5,597. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Philip Waller changes to +30% and Tom Power changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Philip Waller becomes +8.9% and for Tom Power becomes -7.1%.

Given Philip Waller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.8% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tom Power's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.3% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Philip Waller is +6.6% and for Tom Power is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Philip Waller: 78%, Tom Power: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Philip Waller: 57%, Tom Power: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Power: 7,359, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Philip Waller: 5,519, level confidence: 57%.