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Craig Basham v Nick Henderson (Thu 17 Jan 2013)

Match won by Craig Basham. Result: 15-10,15-6,15-10.

Starting level for Craig Basham: 1,935, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Nick Henderson: 1,339, level confidence: 67%.
Craig Basham to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Nick Henderson.

Craig Basham won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Craig Basham played 73% better than Nick Henderson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Craig Basham actually played at a level of 2,118 and Nick Henderson at a level of 1,224. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.8% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Craig Basham changes to +7.8% and Nick Henderson changes to -7.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Craig Basham becomes +4.1% and for Nick Henderson becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Craig Basham is +3.1% and for Nick Henderson is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Craig Basham: 81%, Nick Henderson: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Craig Basham: 74%, Nick Henderson: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Craig Basham: 1,992, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Nick Henderson: 1,292, level confidence: 75%.