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Duncan Green v Martin Hockaday (Thu 17 Jan 2013)

Match won by Martin Hockaday. Result: 13-15,13-15,11-15.

Starting level for Duncan Green: 1,260, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Martin Hockaday: 1,743, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Martin Hockaday to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Duncan Green.

Martin Hockaday won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin Hockaday played 33% better than Duncan Green in this match.

In this case, Martin Hockaday played at level 1,678 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Martin Hockaday would normally have been playing at level 1,686 (based on typical behaviour), Duncan Green played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin Hockaday changes to 0% and Duncan Green changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin Hockaday becomes 0% and for Duncan Green becomes +0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Martin Hockaday is 0% and for Duncan Green is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin Hockaday: 87%, Duncan Green: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin Hockaday: 85%, Duncan Green: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Duncan Green: 1,261, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Martin Hockaday: 1,740, level confidence: 85%.