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Stephen Wells v Adrian Rodrigues (Thu 17 Jan 2013)

Match won by Adrian Rodrigues. Result: 10-15,13-15,15-13,9-15.

Starting level for Stephen Wells: 1,227, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Adrian Rodrigues: 1,495, level confidence: 67%.
Adrian Rodrigues to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Stephen Wells.

Adrian Rodrigues won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Rodrigues played 24% better than Stephen Wells in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Rodrigues actually played at a level of 1,511 and Stephen Wells at a level of 1,214. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Rodrigues changes to +1% and Stephen Wells changes to -0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Rodrigues becomes +0.8% and for Stephen Wells becomes -0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Adrian Rodrigues is +0.6% and for Stephen Wells is -0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Rodrigues: 82%, Stephen Wells: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Rodrigues: 81%, Stephen Wells: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stephen Wells: 1,217, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Adrian Rodrigues: 1,502, level confidence: 81%.