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Lara Mann v Hannah Cartlidge (Mon 21 Jan 2013)

Match won by Hannah Cartlidge. Result: 6-15,8-15,2-15.

Starting level for Lara Mann: 136, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Hannah Cartlidge: 847, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Hannah Cartlidge to win as she is currently playing 523% better than Lara Mann.

Hannah Cartlidge won all of the games and 74% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 181% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hannah Cartlidge played 181% better than Lara Mann in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Hannah Cartlidge was taking it easy by anything up to 48%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 192 and 847 without affecting her level.

In this case, Hannah Cartlidge played at level 409 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Hannah Cartlidge would normally have been playing at level 438 (based on typical behaviour), Lara Mann played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hannah Cartlidge changes to 0% and Lara Mann changes to +2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hannah Cartlidge becomes 0% and for Lara Mann becomes +2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Hannah Cartlidge is 0% and for Lara Mann is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hannah Cartlidge: 84%, Lara Mann: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hannah Cartlidge: 57%, Lara Mann: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lara Mann: 139, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Hannah Cartlidge: 846, level confidence: 57%.