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Peter Learyjnr v Simon Totten (Tue 22 Jan 2013)

Match won by Peter Learyjnr. Result: 12-15,16-14,15-6,16-14.

Starting level for Peter Learyjnr: 1,908, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Simon Totten: 1,763, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Peter Learyjnr to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Simon Totten.

Peter Learyjnr won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Learyjnr played 23% better than Simon Totten in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Learyjnr actually played at a level of 2,038 and Simon Totten at a level of 1,650. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Learyjnr changes to +6.5% and Simon Totten changes to -5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Learyjnr becomes +3.7% and for Simon Totten becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Peter Learyjnr is +2.8% and for Simon Totten is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Learyjnr: 81%, Simon Totten: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Learyjnr: 76%, Simon Totten: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Learyjnr: 1,958, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Simon Totten: 1,716, level confidence: 82%.