Michael Broadbent v Rob St Leger (Tue 22 Jan 2013)
Match won by Michael Broadbent. Result: 15-12,8-15,15-8,10-15,15-5.
Starting level for
Michael Broadbent:
1,359, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Rob St Leger:
1,442, level confidence: 58%.
Rob St Leger to win as he is currently playing
6% better than Michael Broadbent.
Michael Broadbent won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Broadbent played
11% better than Rob St Leger in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Broadbent actually played at a level of
1,476 and Rob St Leger at a level of
1,328. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Broadbent changes to +6.1% and Rob St Leger changes to -8.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Broadbent becomes +4% and for Rob St Leger becomes -4.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Michael Broadbent is +3% and for Rob St Leger is -3.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Broadbent: 89%, Rob St Leger: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Broadbent: 82%, Rob St Leger: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Michael Broadbent:
1,398, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Rob St Leger:
1,390, level confidence: 70%.