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Tim Oram v David Lloyd (Tue 22 Jan 2013)

Match won by Tim Oram. Result: 12-15,17-15,15-9,15-7.

Starting level for Tim Oram: 1,305, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for David Lloyd: 1,140, level confidence: 67%.
Tim Oram to win as he is currently playing 14% better than David Lloyd.

Tim Oram won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Oram played 26% better than David Lloyd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Oram actually played at a level of 1,370 and David Lloyd at a level of 1,086. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Oram changes to +4.6% and David Lloyd changes to -3.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Oram becomes +3.4% and for David Lloyd becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Tim Oram is +2.6% and for David Lloyd is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Oram: 69%, David Lloyd: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Oram: 66%, David Lloyd: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Oram: 1,336, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for David Lloyd: 1,113, level confidence: 78%.