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Gus Lyseight v Martin White (Tue 22 Jan 2013)

Match won by Martin White. Result: 4-15,7-15,9-15.

Starting level for Gus Lyseight: 1,647, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Martin White: 2,058, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Martin White to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Gus Lyseight.

Martin White won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin White played 125% better than Gus Lyseight in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin White actually played at a level of 2,762 and Gus Lyseight at a level of 1,227. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin White changes to +25% and Gus Lyseight changes to -30%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin White becomes +10% and for Gus Lyseight becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Martin White is +7.5% and for Gus Lyseight is -9.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gus Lyseight is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin White: 88%, Gus Lyseight: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin White: 65%, Gus Lyseight: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gus Lyseight: 1,566, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Martin White: 2,209, level confidence: 65%.