Manny Hopkins v Scot Adam (Thu 24 Jan 2013)
Match won by Scot Adam. Result: 13-15,15-12,8-15,16-18.
Starting level for
Manny Hopkins:
1,236, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Scot Adam:
1,621, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Scot Adam to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Manny Hopkins.
Scot Adam won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scot Adam played
22% better than Manny Hopkins in this match.
As Scot Adam has played below his allowed range at 1,521, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Scot Adam would normally have been playing at level 1,582 (based on typical behaviour), Manny Hopkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 2.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scot Adam changes to -0.8% and Manny Hopkins changes to +2.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scot Adam becomes -0.7% and for Manny Hopkins becomes +2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Scot Adam is -0.5% and for Manny Hopkins is +1.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scot Adam: 88%, Manny Hopkins: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scot Adam: 84%, Manny Hopkins: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Manny Hopkins:
1,253, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Scot Adam:
1,610, level confidence: 84%.