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Will John v Rory Pennell (Thu 24 Jan 2013)

Match won by Rory Pennell. Result: 11-2,8-11,5-11,7-11.

Starting level for Will John: 6,342, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Rory Pennell: 10,490, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Rory Pennell to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Will John.

Rory Pennell won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rory Pennell played 21% better than Will John in this match.

As Rory Pennell has played below his allowed range at 8,271, his level reduction is 7.8% before damping. On the assumption that Rory Pennell would normally have been playing at level 9,758 (based on typical behaviour), Will John played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 9.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rory Pennell changes to -5.8% and Will John changes to +9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rory Pennell becomes -2.2% and for Will John becomes +3.5%.

Given Rory Pennell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.

Given Will John's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Rory Pennell is -1.4% and for Will John is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rory Pennell: 84%, Will John: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rory Pennell: 72%, Will John: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Will John: 6,489, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Rory Pennell: 10,333, level confidence: 72%.