Reuben Wilkinson v Gavin McClure (Tue 29 Jan 2013)
Match won by Reuben Wilkinson. Result: 15-12,10-15,15-5,15-12.
Starting level for
Reuben Wilkinson:
831, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for
Gavin McClure:
761, level confidence: 40%.
Reuben Wilkinson to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Gavin McClure.
Reuben Wilkinson won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Reuben Wilkinson played
25% better than Gavin McClure in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Reuben Wilkinson actually played at a level of
889 and Gavin McClure at a level of
711. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Reuben Wilkinson changes to +5.2% and Gavin McClure changes to -6.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Reuben Wilkinson becomes +4.1% and for Gavin McClure becomes -4.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Reuben Wilkinson is +3.1% and for Gavin McClure is -3.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Reuben Wilkinson: 72%, Gavin McClure: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Reuben Wilkinson: 67%, Gavin McClure: 59%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Reuben Wilkinson:
855, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Gavin McClure:
733, level confidence: 59%.