Craig Perry v Paul Huckstep (Wed 30 Jan 2013)
Match won by Craig Perry. Result: 17-15,15-13,15-11.
Starting level for
Craig Perry:
1,717, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Paul Huckstep:
1,138, level confidence: 33%.
Craig Perry to win as he is currently playing
51% better than Paul Huckstep.
Craig Perry won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Craig Perry played
32% better than Paul Huckstep in this match.
As Craig Perry has played below his allowed range at 1,516, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Craig Perry would normally have been playing at level 1,632 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Huckstep played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 3.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Craig Perry changes to -0.4% and Paul Huckstep changes to +3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Craig Perry becomes -0.3% and for Paul Huckstep becomes +3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Craig Perry is 0% and for Paul Huckstep is +2.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Craig Perry: 86%, Paul Huckstep: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Craig Perry: 81%, Paul Huckstep: 54%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Craig Perry:
1,711, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Paul Huckstep:
1,162, level confidence: 54%.