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Raf Shergold v Paul Cousins (Wed 30 Jan 2013)

Match won by Paul Cousins. Result: 15-8,15-9,10-15,13-15,16-18.

Starting level for Raf Shergold: 2,023, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Paul Cousins: 2,166, level confidence: 69%.
Paul Cousins to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Raf Shergold.

Paul Cousins won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Cousins played 6% better than Raf Shergold in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Cousins actually played at a level of 2,156 and Raf Shergold at a level of 2,033. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Cousins changes to -0.4% and Raf Shergold changes to +0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Cousins becomes -0.3% and for Raf Shergold becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Paul Cousins is 0% and for Raf Shergold is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Cousins: 83%, Raf Shergold: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Cousins: 83%, Raf Shergold: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raf Shergold: 2,025, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Paul Cousins: 2,158, level confidence: 83%.