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Matt Delaney v Jack Jago (Thu 31 Jan 2013)

Match won by Jack Jago. Result: 6-11,8-11,16-14,6-11.

Starting level for Matt Delaney: 2,452, level confidence: 31%.
Starting level for Jack Jago: 9,024, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Jack Jago to win as he is currently playing 268% better than Matt Delaney.

Jack Jago won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Jago played 27% better than Matt Delaney in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jack Jago was taking it easy by anything up to 31%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,863 and 9,024 without affecting his level.

As Jack Jago has played below his allowed range at 3,466, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Jack Jago would normally have been playing at level 6,189 (based on typical behaviour), Matt Delaney played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 41%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Jago changes to -2.4% and Matt Delaney changes to +20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Jago becomes -1.2% and for Matt Delaney becomes +7.8%.

Given Jack Jago's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Jack Jago is -0.8% and for Matt Delaney is +5.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Jago: 85%, Matt Delaney: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Jago: 50%, Matt Delaney: 32%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Delaney: 2,592, level confidence: 32%.
Final level for Jack Jago: 8,940, level confidence: 50%.