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Paul Green v Paul Scott-Stevens (Tue 05 Feb 2013)

Match won by Paul Green. Result: 15-8,15-7,15-6.

Starting level for Paul Green: 2,036, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 2,256, level confidence: 62%.
Paul Scott-Stevens to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Paul Green.

Paul Green won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Green played 114% better than Paul Scott-Stevens in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Green actually played at a level of 3,137 and Paul Scott-Stevens at a level of 1,464. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 54% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Green changes to +41% and Paul Scott-Stevens changes to -51%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Green becomes +15.3% and for Paul Scott-Stevens becomes -18%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Paul Green is +11% and for Paul Scott-Stevens is -13%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Green is limited to +10% and Paul Scott-Stevens is limited to -7.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Green: 88%, Paul Scott-Stevens: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Green: 57%, Paul Scott-Stevens: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Green: 2,236, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 2,090, level confidence: 51%.