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Paul Crowson v Craig Kirby (Tue 05 Feb 2013)

Match won by Paul Crowson. Result: 15-9,15-11,15-13.

Starting level for Paul Crowson: 1,238, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Craig Kirby: 849, level confidence: 63%.
Paul Crowson to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Craig Kirby.

Paul Crowson won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Crowson played 43% better than Craig Kirby in this match.

In this case, Paul Crowson played at level 1,210 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Craig Kirby is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Crowson: 82%, Craig Kirby: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Crowson: 81%, Craig Kirby: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Crowson: 1,236, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Craig Kirby: 848, level confidence: 79%.