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Jed Whelan v Martin Berry (Wed 06 Feb 2013)

Match won by Martin Berry. Result: 3-15,7-15,12-15.

Starting level for Jed Whelan: 1,525, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Martin Berry: 2,122, level confidence: 59%.
Martin Berry to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Jed Whelan.

Martin Berry won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin Berry played 105% better than Jed Whelan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin Berry actually played at a level of 2,573 and Jed Whelan at a level of 1,258. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin Berry changes to +18% and Jed Whelan changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin Berry becomes +7.5% and for Jed Whelan becomes -7.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Martin Berry is +5.7% and for Jed Whelan is -5.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin Berry: 77%, Jed Whelan: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin Berry: 64%, Jed Whelan: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jed Whelan: 1,443, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Martin Berry: 2,239, level confidence: 64%.