Julian Craxton v Rob McGuchan (Wed 06 Feb 2013)
Match won by Rob McGuchan. Result: 12-15,15-6,16-18,15-13,9-15.
Starting level for
Julian Craxton:
1,545, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Rob McGuchan:
1,401, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Julian Craxton to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Rob McGuchan.
Rob McGuchan won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob McGuchan played
8% better than Julian Craxton in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob McGuchan actually played at a level of
1,525 and Julian Craxton at a level of
1,419. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.9% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob McGuchan changes to +7.5% and Julian Craxton changes to -8.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob McGuchan becomes +4.5% and for Julian Craxton becomes -4.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Rob McGuchan is +3.4% and for Julian Craxton is -3.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob McGuchan: 88%, Julian Craxton: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob McGuchan: 81%, Julian Craxton: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Julian Craxton:
1,490, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Rob McGuchan:
1,446, level confidence: 81%.