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Paul Huckstep v Cesar Ramirez-Molina (Wed 06 Feb 2013)

Match won by Cesar Ramirez-Molina. Result: 9-15,10-15,4-15.

Starting level for Paul Huckstep: 1,161, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,353, level confidence: 58%.
Cesar Ramirez-Molina to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Paul Huckstep.

Cesar Ramirez-Molina won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Ramirez-Molina played 96% better than Paul Huckstep in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Ramirez-Molina actually played at a level of 1,753 and Paul Huckstep at a level of 896. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Ramirez-Molina changes to +25% and Paul Huckstep changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Ramirez-Molina becomes +11.7% and for Paul Huckstep becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Cesar Ramirez-Molina is +8.8% and for Paul Huckstep is -9.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Huckstep is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 76%, Paul Huckstep: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 59%, Paul Huckstep: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Huckstep: 1,104, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,469, level confidence: 59%.