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Brett Murray v Gavin Noffki (Thu 07 Feb 2013)

Match won by Brett Murray. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Brett Murray: 2,538, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Gavin Noffki: 1,637, level confidence: 54%.
Brett Murray to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Gavin Noffki.

Brett Murray won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Brett Murray played 136% better than Gavin Noffki in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Brett Murray actually played at a level of 3,129 and Gavin Noffki at a level of 1,328. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Brett Murray changes to +16% and Gavin Noffki changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Brett Murray becomes +6.6% and for Gavin Noffki becomes -8.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Brett Murray is +4.9% and for Gavin Noffki is -6.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gavin Noffki is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Brett Murray: 78%, Gavin Noffki: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Brett Murray: 63%, Gavin Noffki: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Brett Murray: 2,659, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Gavin Noffki: 1,557, level confidence: 59%.