Stephen Wells v Matt McGill (Thu 07 Feb 2013)
Match won by Matt McGill. Result: 11-15,15-13,6-15,13-15.
Starting level for
Stephen Wells:
1,216, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Matt McGill:
1,593, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Matt McGill to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Stephen Wells.
Matt McGill won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt McGill played
26% better than Stephen Wells in this match.
In this case, Matt McGill played at level 1,545 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Matt McGill would normally have been playing at level 1,555 (based on typical behaviour), Stephen Wells played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt McGill changes to 0% and Stephen Wells changes to +0.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt McGill becomes 0% and for Stephen Wells becomes +0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Matt McGill is 0% and for Stephen Wells is +0.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt McGill: 86%, Stephen Wells: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt McGill: 84%, Stephen Wells: 80%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Stephen Wells:
1,219, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Matt McGill:
1,591, level confidence: 84%.