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Simon Taylor v John Goodfellow (Tue 12 Feb 2013)

Match won by John Goodfellow. Result: 15-12,11-15,10-15,15-17.

Starting level for Simon Taylor: 1,140, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for John Goodfellow: 871, level confidence: 61%.
Simon Taylor to win as he is currently playing 31% better than John Goodfellow.

John Goodfellow won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Goodfellow played 22% better than Simon Taylor in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Goodfellow actually played at a level of 1,100 and Simon Taylor at a level of 902. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Goodfellow changes to +23% and Simon Taylor changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Goodfellow becomes +12.4% and for Simon Taylor becomes -9.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for John Goodfellow is +9.3% and for Simon Taylor is -7.2%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simon Taylor is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Goodfellow: 78%, Simon Taylor: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Goodfellow: 62%, Simon Taylor: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Taylor: 1,084, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for John Goodfellow: 951, level confidence: 62%.