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Jay Ledger v Reuben Wilkinson (Tue 12 Feb 2013)

Match won by Reuben Wilkinson. Result: 5-15,10-15,15-11,9-15.

Starting level for Jay Ledger: 459, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Reuben Wilkinson: 817, level confidence: 62%.
Reuben Wilkinson to win as he is currently playing 78% better than Jay Ledger.

Reuben Wilkinson won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Reuben Wilkinson played 31% better than Jay Ledger in this match.

As Reuben Wilkinson has played below his allowed range at 632, his level reduction is 5% before damping. On the assumption that Reuben Wilkinson would normally have been playing at level 745 (based on typical behaviour), Jay Ledger played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 8.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Reuben Wilkinson changes to -3.3% and Jay Ledger changes to +8.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Reuben Wilkinson becomes -3.2% and for Jay Ledger becomes +5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Reuben Wilkinson is -2.4% and for Jay Ledger is +4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Reuben Wilkinson: 79%, Jay Ledger: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Reuben Wilkinson: 68%, Jay Ledger: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jay Ledger: 478, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Reuben Wilkinson: 797, level confidence: 68%.